Think you can predict the Heat’s offseason moves? Remember 2003 before answering

You think you know what will  happen with the Miami Heat in Thursday’s NBA draft and the free-agency period beyond?

Nobody knows. Nobody could.

There are too many moving parts in this process, especially with Pat Riley in charge of it.

Dwyane Wade and his son with Pat Riley after the Heat selected Wade with the No. 5 pick in the 2003 draft.
(File photo)

Look back to 2003, the year that Miami made its most successful first-round pick ever – Dwyane Wade. The followed happened that offseason, one seismic step after another, and the most astonishing news of all broke just days before the start of the regular season. Remember?

Well, here it all is, with the blockbuster headline buried near the bottom of the list, startling enough to make Wade wonder if he was even starting his career with a stable franchise.

  • Junior Dwyane Wade leads Marquette to the Final Four but the Golden Eagles get blown out by Kansas 94-61 by Kansas. Wade, who was married with a 1-year-old son at the time, said “I’m known for having a great season but I didn’t go out a winner, so it will be a tough decision.” Luckily for the Heat, he decides to leave college one year early and enter the draft.
  • Wade works out in June for at least nine teams, including Miami, which is coming off a 25-57 season and has the No. 5 overall pick.
  • Certain stars LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh come off the draft board before the Heat can act but Riley takes Wade and says “we feel like we have, contrary to what people might think and other than LeBron, one of the best players, if not the best player in the draft.”
  • The agent for Heat point guard Anthony Carter blows it by failing to inform the team that his player wants to exercise his option for the coming season. When the deadline passes without notification, Riley no longer is obligated to pay Carter his salary and the option on keeping him becomes the team’s instead. The Heat let Carter go and gain an additional $4 million to spend on free agents.
  • Riley speaks generally with reporters about the possibility of saving his money for the next offseason, when Kobe Bryant and Kevin Garnett might be available as free agents.
  • Riley makes a one-year offer to Alonzo Mourning, who missed the previous season with a kidney ailment, but is satisfied to let the greatest player in Heat history go. The New Jersey Nets sign Zo to a four-year deal and he says he is going because he is trying to get a ring and can’t wait for the Heat to get better.
  • Riley signs Elton Brand to a six-year offer sheet but the Los Angeles Clippers match the offer and keep the free agent.
  • Riley goes after the Clippers again, signing Lamar Odom to an offer sheet for six years and $65 million. This time the Clippers can’t match and Odom joins Miami.
  • Wade plays his first exhibition game in Puerto Rico against the Philadelphia 76ers and shows immediate promise with 18 points, eight rebounds, five steals and four blocked shots.
  • Wade signs his rookie contract for three years at $8.5 million with a team option for a fourth year.
  • Riley quits as Heat coach four days before the regular-season opener and names assistant Stan Van Gundy to replace him. Riley says he will remain as team president for the final two years of his 10-year Heat contract, adding “I feel the time is right because this team is headed in another direction. It’s turned around. It’s fresh. It needs another voice.” Riley is 58.
  • Miami goes 42-40 and makes the playoffs as the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference. After beating the Hornets in the first round, the season ends in the conference semifinals against Indiana.
  • Riley tears it all up and rebuilds the following summer, trading Odom, Caron Butler, Brian Grant and a first-round draft pick to the Los Angeles Lakers for Shaquille O’Neal.

 

It couldn’t possibly be as dramatic as all that this offseason, right?

Well, I’m not predicting anything. Riley won’t let me or anybody else do that, and he likes it that way.

[Koepka and Berger make it two wins in a row for PB County high school products]

[LeBron may be 3-5 in NBA Finals but he’s a long way from being a loser]

[Thermodynamics of NHL life: Players on ice and coaches on hot seats]

 

Heat win streak and the mindset behind it suits me a lot better than limping to lottery

So the Miami Heat take an 11-game win streak to Milwaukee on Wednesday night. What’s the best thing that could happen now?

The obvious answer is make it a 12-game win streak. What, you allergic to winning?

The NBA, however, is a strange place at this time of year. Fans worry about their team wasting an opportunity at a lottery draft pick by stinking badly enough to miss the league’s wide postseason net but not going all the way to utterly rancid.

That’s where Miami is now at 22-30, a couple of games back of what would be the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference if the season ended today, which it almost never does.

050804 spt Indianapolis, IN...Conseco Fieldhouse Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers..Second round of playoffs Game 2..Heat coach Stan Van Gundy talks with official Bill Spooner in the fourth quarter. Van Gundy drew a technical foul . Staff photo by Allen Eyestone
INDIANAPOLIS – Former Heat coach Stan Van Gundy in the process of drawing a technical foul from official Bill Spooner in the fourth quarter of a 2004 playoff loss to the Pacers. (Staff photo by Allen Eyestone)

You know they’re saying that the NBA draft pool is deeper and more talented than usual. They’re saying that qualifying for that final playoff spot doesn’t mean much once LeBron and the Cavs are finished messing you up in the opening round. They’re saying all kinds of things, but through it all I say win as many games as you can, period.

To do less is to fall short of the dedication level of the paying customers up in the stands, which no professional organization should ever do. And if being just a little bit good but not great is an unforgivable sin, then what’s the point of having half the teams that are in this league?

On this same week back in 2004 Miami was bumping along in a similar limbo. Stan Van Gundy has pushed the team to a 21-32 record but he was running out of ideas at the end of a five-game losing streak. There sat the Heat, outside the playoff picture and in the running for some top draftee names like Dwight Howard and Emeka Okafor and Shaun Livingston.

So what happened? Some rookie named Dwyane Wade scored 27 points to help the Heat eke out a close win over a truly lousy Orlando team. Whatever. Then the Heat started putting together a few modest win streaks. Fine. Then, in March, they won seven in a row. Fun.

Before you know it, South Florida’s getting interested in getting tickets for a game again, because Miami is climbing past a bunch of dog teams to grab the conference’s No. 4 seed in the playoffs at 42-40.

The Heat beat New Orleans in a physically tough seven-game series to open the playoffs. That was really Wade’s coming-out party, and it continued with a second-round series that pushed Indiana to six games. This wasn’t the greatest thing ever to happen to the franchise, but it was entertaining, and it sure beat sinking to the bottom of the standings just to get a shot at some college kid who might not pan out anyway.

As it was, Miami took Dorell Wright, a solid player but not a star, with the 19th overall pick in the 2004 draft. Could have been a little better, but there were no guarantees, and Pat Riley has never much cared for the draft anyway.

He went out that summer and got Shaquille O’Neal instead, trading away a future first-round pick as part of a large package. The franchise’s first championship season wasn’t far away after that.

Dwight Howard, the raw, rebounding bull who went first overall in 2004 to that previously mentioned lousy Orlando team, is still looking for his first.

[Some warmed-over Super Bowl LI nuggets that still pack a punch]

[Lane Kiffin says FAU’s new QB is moving past old trouble]

[Palm Beach County’s spring training showcase is best in the state]

No telling what might happen when it comes to veterans moving around and teams manipulating contracts and league rules closing and opening loopholes. What we should know without much of a doubt is this.

Winning is good. It builds and maintains the proper mindset for an entire organization. It tells fans they are not fools. It recognizes that no one star coming out of the draft will bring a championship in one hearty swipe.

Anything else is just playing the lottery and, just as in real life, that’s not much of a plan.